I’ve now been selling real estate for almost 20 years and have been fortunate enough to work through several value cycles. One thing is that is starting to become very clear to me is when we’re about to hit the bottom of a market.
I bring several different buyers out in search of a purchase each and every week and have started to hear similar comments to what I heard in both 2001 and 2009. These were markets that were considered to be at their bottom and were times when buyers making purchases were able to see major profits in only a few short years. I also experienced conversations with reluctant buyers who didn’t buy during these markets and passed on their opportunity of that season.
Each and every one of those buyers had fear and their own reasoning behind their decisions which they shared with me. In every engagement, the reasoning was the same. Their common logic was that the market would to drop another 20%, boats were parked empty of the shore, and the stock market would tank. These were unfounded, or at best, highly “end of times” scenarios that had little to zero likelihood of happening. This is one of those times. Prices are down as much as 20%, and even if they drop another 5% you are buying at the best time you could in the past 8 years.
Yes, there are some truly bad deals out there. People will buy now and lose money. But you do not have to be a genius to find a purchase that should grow 30-40% in value over the next five years. These opportunities are bringing out the most reluctant buyers, but what happens is that buyers get scared. Even when they find the best possible option and are buying for 25% less then could have 6 years ago, they will find a reason to pass on the purchase.
Buying is not easy, and it’s not for everyone. For some reason, many buyers are more comfortable buying at the top of the market. These types of buyers would rather have little growth opportunity and instead, read positive articles or hear stories of their friends making profits only a few years prior. Unfortunately, once this happens, the market has already peaked. I can count hundreds of millions of dollars of potential equity growth buyers have passed up so far this year for unreasonable points.
The truth is, buying NYC real estate is tough and scary. It’s May and there will probably be problems along the way. But if do you buy halfway smart and follow through with my plan, it can, and should be the best investment you ever make. Plus, if you work with me, you will always find a way to make a profit, as even if all goes wrong, you will have many outs. That’s why I love real estate - it’s not a rock you watch, it’s a fortune you build. There will be some wise people who will be making millions off what they are buying this year.