As positive Covid-19 cases continue to rise throughout the country, New York City is one of the only areas where cases are steadily decreasing. Since May, we have seen a rapid influx in demand for areas outside our metropolis and lackluster demand for the city.
Last month, we stated that if market saturation stayed below 8,000, we would see prices stabilize. There were around 6,300 homes for sale in Manhattan at that time. Only 30 days later, we now have over 8,300 homes on the market. In our over 20 years of selling real estate, this is the first year I have ever seen an increase during the month of July. It is traditionally a month when people remove listings, not add new ones to the market.
This 30% jump in new homes for sale is partly due to properties that had been previously planned for release but held back over the lockdown. Over the last three months (March, April, and June), there were 591 sales in Manhattan. For the same three months back in 2019, there were 3,019 sales. These 2,000 new listings in inventory is that surplus from lack of sales and NOT due to more people trying to sell to move out of the city. The increase in inventory is due to paused consumption.
Prices and interest rates are down. Our city, according to John Hopkins, is one of the safest places to be in the Country concerning the pandemic.
There will likely be a mass return to the city, with 2 to 4 months of a buying frenzy. People who have vacated are now realizing there is nowhere else in the world like the big apple.
Whether this happens pre- or post-election, we are not sure but it will happen sometime over the next 12 months. While COVID remains a valid concern, it is not going to affect the Manhattan market any different then it affects the overall national market.
It's a crazy time in the market with complications we haven't seen in over 100 years. The characteristics are not far off from ones we have seen during other dips we have had in the recent past. The one consistency throughout every major market change is the there is a quick and steep recovery that happens much sooner then anyone ever predicts.